After several days with temperatures of 70 degrees and above, it might be a surprise to learn Mid-Missouri could face a colder winter in the coming months.
Cooler temperatures and up to 15 inches of snow can be expected in Mid-Missouri this winter, according to a weather expert at the University of Missouri.
"The only consistency in Missouri's weather seems to be its inconsistency," Atmospheric Sciences professor Tony Lupo said in a news release. "Due to its landlocked nature, Missouri experiences a variety of climate conditions. Long-term forecasting, an already difficult science, is even tougher in Missouri considering its location in the middle of the United States."
Lupo's long-term forecast for last year's winter in Mid-Missouri predicted an expected snowfall between 15-20 inches and cooler temperatures overall. The actual forecast didn't cooperate, as the region saw less than 10 inches of precipitation fall to the ground. Temperatures also were warmer than anticipated.
"Last winter, of course, was a miserable failure in terms of our forecast," Lupo said. "We weren't the only ones. Everyone was projecting a cooler winter based on the developments of a La Nia that never came."
While wary, Lupo is more confident in the current La Nia pattern this year, as it is far more established than it was at the same time last year. Lupo said Mid-Missouri should expect 10-15 inches of precipitation this winter and cooler temperatures overall.
"I saw some indications that I haven't seen in almost 20 years at this time of year," Lupo said. "It was giving some really cold values. It will be the same type of snow that we always get for this part of the world. We'll get 3-4 inches at a time, and it melts away. I think if you want a white Christmas, there's a better chance of that this year."
The months of October and November have showcased the ups and downs of Missouri weather. The first part of October featured extremely warm days, almost summer-like in nature. The last part of the month consisted of some of the coldest days recorded in the past 30 years of October. The majority of November was cooler than last year, but the last few days saw record highs.
"Moving forward this winter, I think it will be on the cooler side of normal," Lupo said. "It's not going to be terribly cold. Given that the last few winters have been warm, people will perceive the cold as much worse."
Precipitation is important during the winter months, as it prepares the soil for the upcoming planting season.
"If you're running behind in the wintertime, it does kind of fall off the radar, but it does leave you a little short of soil moisture coming into the warmer time of the year where you get a lot of evaporation," Lupo said. "I think this year will be a good winter in terms of not getting us behind in moisture."